The fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect on January 19, is now at serious risk of collapse. Despite diplomatic efforts by regional mediators Egypt and Qatar to keep the truce intact, growing political tensions and conflicting demands threaten to unravel the deal. With both sides accusing each other of violations, and external political forces adding to the complexity, the path forward remains uncertain.
Diplomatic Efforts to Salvage the Ceasefire
A senior Egyptian source confirmed that Cairo and Doha are “intensifying their diplomatic efforts in an attempt to salvage the ceasefire agreement.” As part of these efforts, a high-ranking Hamas delegation has arrived in Cairo for urgent discussions to prevent the situation from deteriorating further.
“We are fully committed to the terms of the deal,” a Hamas official told the BBC. However, Israel has signaled that unless all remaining hostages are returned by Saturday, the ceasefire will be deemed over, and military operations will resume.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a stern warning, stating, “If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end and the [Israeli military] will resume intense fighting.”
Confusion Over Hostage Release Conditions
One of the key stumbling blocks is the number of hostages Hamas is expected to release. There have been mixed messages regarding Netanyahu’s ultimatum, with some reports suggesting that he is demanding the return of all 76 hostages still held in Gaza, aligning with the high-stakes demand made by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Hamas had initially planned to release hostages in phases, but the group now claims that Israel has violated the agreement by restricting humanitarian aid to Gaza. In response, Hamas threatened to delay the next scheduled hostage release, further escalating tensions.
Political Pressure from Israel’s Far-Right
The Israeli government is facing internal divisions over how to handle the ceasefire. Netanyahu’s coalition includes far-right ministers who are calling for a return to military operations.
Miri Regev, a close ally of Netanyahu, publicly backed Trump’s demand for all hostages to be released, declaring on social media, “By Saturday, everyone will be released!”
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, went even further, warning Hamas that if hostages are not returned, “the gates of hell” will be opened. He proposed cutting off all supplies to Gaza, including fuel and water, and called for a full-scale military occupation of the territory.
Smotrich’s hardline stance has alarmed Israeli security officials, who fear that the ceasefire’s collapse could endanger the lives of hostages still in Hamas custody. Israeli media reports suggest that security chiefs are pushing for a way to secure the release of the next group of captives on schedule.
Uncertainty Over Humanitarian Aid and Gaza’s Future
The fragile truce has allowed hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, but humanitarian conditions remain dire. Hamas argues that Israel has failed to uphold its obligations regarding aid, citing a severe shortage of shelters, fuel, and other essential supplies.
According to Hamas, Israel was supposed to allow 300,000 tents and 60,000 caravans into Gaza, but much of this aid has yet to arrive. With cold and wet winter conditions worsening the humanitarian crisis, the lack of shelter is becoming a critical issue.
Israel disputes these claims, with its military coordination body, COGAT, insisting that it has facilitated the entry of 600 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza daily. However, UN figures indicate that while aid has reached some areas, the supply remains insufficient for the growing number of returnees.
Trump’s Controversial Proposal Further Complicates Matters
Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump has introduced a radical new plan for Gaza’s future. His administration has floated the idea of relocating Gaza’s two million Palestinian residents to Jordan and Egypt, turning the strip into a Mediterranean travel destination.
The proposal has sparked outrage across the Arab world. Jordan’s King Abdullah II has already rejected it outright, telling Trump during a recent meeting in Washington that Palestinians must “stay in place.” Egypt, meanwhile, has put forward its own Gaza reconstruction plan, which does not involve displacement.
Israeli far-right politicians have embraced Trump’s vision, seeing it as an opportunity to reshape Gaza’s demographics. However, this stance has increased tensions with Israel’s security establishment, which has long viewed such radical proposals as destabilizing.
What Comes Next?
With the ceasefire deal set to expire in March, the coming weeks will be critical. The immediate crisis could be resolved if mediators manage to secure another hostage release and ensure that humanitarian aid reaches Gaza. However, the bigger challenge lies in determining the long-term future of the ceasefire and negotiations.
As of now, Hamas remains a significant political and military force in Gaza, despite Netanyahu’s initial war goal of eliminating the group. Hamas has signaled a willingness to share power with other Palestinian factions but appears unlikely to disarm.
For now, efforts to keep the ceasefire intact remain fraught with uncertainty, political infighting, and competing international interests. If diplomacy fails, Gaza could face yet another devastating escalation in violence, with profound consequences for the entire region.
